President Trump’s policies in April injected heightened uncertainty into the markets, at times tipping into outright chaos. We also witnessed the rise of a “sell America” narrative and the growing possibility that the rest of the world might gradually rebalance trade away from the United States over the longer term.
This environment of uncertainty, market disruption, and re-evaluation of the U.S.’s reliability as a trade partner led to significant movements across investment markets. Arguably the most notable was the weakening of the U.S. dollar, with the euro gaining 10% against it since the start of the year.
Source: Tradingview
U.S. equities, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, declined nearly 20% from peak to trough before recovering to end the month with a year-to-date loss of 5% in U.S. dollar terms.
Source: Tradingview
Including other developed and emerging markets, global equity investors — as represented by the MSCI ACWI — are facing a year-to-date loss of approximately 2% in local currency terms.
Source: MSCI ACWI. Year to 30.4.25. Index rebased to 100 as at 31.12.24. Local currency.
However, for a euro-based investor, translating U.S. dollar-denominated assets back into euros results in a loss closer to 10%.
Source: MSCI ACWI. Year to 30.4.25. Index rebased to 100 as at 31.12.24. Euro Returns.
April and YTD Numbers
Apart from the sharp year-to-date decline in equities for euro-based investors — largely driven by the strengthening euro against the U.S. dollar — the other notable moves in the table below are the declines in both oil and natural gas prices.
Tariffs and Implications for Investors
On April 2 — dubbed “Liberation Day” — President Trump imposed a baseline tariff of 10% on trading partners, along with higher reciprocal tariffs on several countries. The administration later paused the implementation of the higher tariff rates for 90 days to allow time for trade negotiations and also introduced exceptions to the blanket rates.
Looking ahead, some likely implications of the current market turmoil caused by this trade war, are:
- Higher short-term inflation, with potential risks to long-term inflation expectations
- Slower global growth
- Significant efforts by companies to rethink and rewire their global supply chains — with a meaningful short-term risk to current supply chains if the trade war escalates further.
Inflation
The graph below shows that headline inflation has so far remained reasonably contained and close to the 2% target. However, an early sign of upward pressure may be emerging: EU core inflation (a measure that strips out the more volatile energy and food elements and not shown on this graph) rose from 2.4% in March to 2.7% in April. This will be important to watch in the coming months.
Source: Tradingeconomics
Global Growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its most recent set of global economic projections on the 22nd April. It showed a marked reduction in expected growth from their last set of projections just three months earlier (see graphic below).
The report stated that the global economy is facing a critical juncture, with growth momentum weakening sharply due to a surge in trade tensions, particularly following the United States’ near-universal tariffs introduced in early 2025. Global GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 — well below the 2000–2019 average of 3.7%. Advanced economies are expected to grow just 1.4% in 2025, with the U.S. outlook cut sharply to 1.8% due to rising policy uncertainty, trade disruptions, and softening domestic demand. Emerging markets and developing economies face slower growth (3.7% in 2025), especially in countries most affected by new trade barriers, such as China. The report calls for coordinated global action to de-escalate trade tensions, restore predictability to trade and investment flows, and strengthen international cooperation.
Source: IMF and Visual Capitalist
Where to From Here?
The current situation is negative for global growth. Amidst all this uncertainty, it’s hard to imagine that large companies are not already doing at least a number of things: pausing investment decisions until they gain more clarity, planning to reduce their reliance on U.S. sales, and developing more resilient, diversified supply chains.
In recent weeks, there have been some signs of reprieve. It’s entirely possible that the U.S. has realised it may have pushed too far and could now begin to row back. Under this scenario, President Trump could declare victory and announce a series of trade deals over the coming weeks and months. While some damage has already been done, if companies regain confidence in the direction of policy, they may — over time — resume investment and refocus on growth.
On the other hand, if uncertainty persists much longer, we are likely to see more lasting and potentially permanent damage to business confidence and in turn consumer confidence.
As a result, we expect markets to remain volatile in the near term.
So – What Should Investors Do?
The Trump administration has torn up past accepted behavioural norms for both global trade and international relations. This has created massive uncertainty for markets and has intensified worries about inflation, slower growth, and geopolitical risks.
Market downturns are unsettling, but for clients following a carefully designed plan, our guidance remains consistent: stick to your investment plan.
While it’s natural to feel concerned when headlines highlight large drops, remember that volatility is part of long-term investing. A disciplined and diversified portfolio is essential for navigating these uncertainties. We maintain that patience, discipline, and a measured approach are critical for long-term success.
By working closely with your advisor and adhering to a well-structured plan, you can confidently navigate market shifts and seize emerging opportunities.
Expect Continued Uncertainty
Global markets are facing a period of uncertainty, particularly around trade policies and government actions. It may take weeks—or even months—for the full impact of tariffs and related measures to become clear. During such times, reacting hastily based on fear can often lead to more harm than good.
Stay Focused on Your Long-Term Plan
It can be tempting to sell off positions and “wait for the dust to settle.” However, doing so may mean missing opportunities for growth. As your investment plan is grounded in your long-term objectives, the best course of action is to stay the course.
Consider Accelerating Investments
If you have been patiently building your equity allocation, price drops can present an attractive entry point. While it may feel counterintuitive to buy when markets are down and many investors are selling, history shows that investing during downturns can enhance returns over the long run.
Look Ahead to Higher Expected Returns
One upside of declining stock prices is that they often lead to improved long-term growth potential. Simply put, when you purchase shares at lower prices, there is greater opportunity to benefit from future market rebounds and higher expected returns.
The bottom line? Stay committed to your long-term plan. Periods of market volatility are uncomfortable but not unexpected, and in many cases, they can present significant opportunities. By maintaining perspective and focusing on your financial goals, you’ll be better positioned to weather the storm and ultimately come out ahead.
John Tuohy is Chief Executive of Acuvest, an Irish-owned, independent advisory firm specialising in wealth management, pensions, and investment advisory services for individuals, companies, pension schemes, charities, and institutions. John is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Fellow of the Chartered Association of Certified Accountants.
