One issue is dominating markets right now: the Iran / Middle East conflict, how long it lasts, and what it means for oil and gas prices, growth, inflation and interest rates.
Just over 10 days in, it is still too early to draw firm conclusions. But the initial market reaction is clear. Oil and gas prices have jumped, equity markets have weakened, and the US dollar has strengthened against the euro. Markets are now closely focused on the risk of oil supply disruption, with our fourth chart showing a sharp slowdown in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz which normally transports 20m barrels per day.
Sources: ECB, MSCI ACWI, Rebased to 100 as at 31.12.25, investing.com, FT and Acuvest.
To put recent moves in context, the table below shows how markets had performed before the conflict began, covering both February returns and year-to-date returns to end-February.
February and YTD Numbers
Tariffs, Courts and Continued Uncertainty
The Trump tariff story took another turn in February, when the US Supreme Court ruled that the president’s sweeping emergency tariffs were unlawful, dealing a meaningful blow to one of the administration’s main economic tools.
That might sound reassuring for markets, but the bigger message is not clarity — it is continued uncertainty. The White House has already moved to reimpose a temporary global tariff under a different legal route, and further legal and political challenges look likely.
For investors, the lesson is familiar: tariff risk has not disappeared, but it has become more complicated, reinforcing the case for diversification, discipline and a focus on long-term fundamentals rather than day-to-day headlines.
Anthropic and the New AI Jolt
Another big story in early February came from AI, where Anthropic unsettled markets with a series of product launches that suggested the technology is moving faster into real business workflows than many investors had expected.
Its latest Claude upgrades, together with new industry-specific tools and a reported collaboration with Goldman Sachs, sharpened concerns that AI could disrupt parts of software, data and professional services sooner rather than later.
That triggered a sharp market reaction, with the shares of some software and professional services companies falling by as much as 20%. However, the broader investment message is less about individual companies and more about the pace of change: AI remains a powerful long-term opportunity, but it is also creating winners, losers and plenty of volatility along the way.
So – What Should Investors Do?
Staying the Course in an Uncertain World
Markets are once again navigating a mix of shifting headlines, geopolitical tension, and policy surprises. With uncertainty around Iran and the broader Middle East adding to the noise, it is natural for investors to feel uneasy. But for long-term investors, the playbook remains familiar: stay patient, stay diversified, and stay focused on the bigger picture.
Our key messages:
1. Stay Invested: Markets move quickly, and missing even a handful of strong recovery days can have a meaningful impact on long-term returns.
2. Trust Your Plan: A well-diversified portfolio is built to withstand periods of uncertainty like this. If your goals have not changed, your investment strategy should not either.
3. Look for Opportunity: Volatility can be uncomfortable, but it can also create opportunity. For disciplined investors, periods of uncertainty can provide attractive entry points over time.
The Bottom Line:
Geopolitical risks can unsettle markets in the short term, but long-term investment success is usually driven by discipline, patience, and perspective rather than reaction. Staying the course with a robust plan—and good advice—remains the most effective way forward.
John Tuohy is Chief Executive of Acuvest, an Irish-owned, independent advisory firm specialising in wealth management, pensions, and investment advisory services for individuals, companies, pension schemes, charities, and institutions. John is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Fellow of the Chartered Association of Certified Accountants.
